National wealth and school enrollment

The first and second goal of the Millennium Development Goals are the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger and the achievement of universal primary education. In previous posts I presented evidence on the connection between poverty and education in India and the United States. At the global level, this link is also evident. Middle and high income countries typically have higher levels of school enrollment than low income countries.

This relationship can be demonstrated by plotting school net enrollment ratios (NER) against gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as a measure of national wealth. The graphs below present the primary and secondary school NER in 2002/03 (the latest year with data) in relation to GDP per capita in 2002. School enrollment figures are from the Global Education Digest 2005 by UNESCO and the GDP per capita from the World Development Indicators 2005 by the World Bank. The GDP data was adjusted with purchasing power parities (PPP) to take the price levels in different countries into account. In addition, the GDP per capita is plotted on a logarithmic scale so that the relationship with NER can be seen more easily.

The first graph makes clear that low income countries have significantly lower levels of primary school enrollment. Most countries with a GDP per capita of $2,500 or less have net enrollment ratios below 80%. Almost all countries above this level of GDP have NER values of more than 80%.

Primary school net enrollment ratio and GDP per capita, 2002

Data sources: (1) Primary school NER: Global Education Digest 2005, UNESCO Institute for Statistics. - (2) GDP per capita: World Development Indicators 2005, World Bank.

The link between national wealth and school enrollment is even more obvious at the secondary level of education. Virtually all countries with a secondary school NER below 60% have a GDP per capita of less than $10,000. In contrast, all countries with a per capita income of more than $15,000 have NER levels near or above 80%.

Secondary school net enrollment ratio and GDP per capita, 2002

Data sources: (1) Secondary school NER: Global Education Digest 2005, UNESCO Institute for Statistics. - (2) GDP per capita: World Development Indicators 2005, World Bank.

Related articles

• National wealth and years of education
• Household wealth and years of education
• Poverty and educational attainment in the United States
• Poverty and educational attainment in the United States, part 2

Friedrich Huebler, 18 September 2005 (edited 28 August 2008), Creative Commons License
Permanent URL: http://huebler.blogspot.com/2005/09/national-wealth-and-school-enrollment.html

Poverty and educational attainment in the United States, part 2

Poverty and education are closely linked. In India, for example, children from the poorest households are least likely to attend primary school. Such a link between poverty and education also exists in industrialized countries. In the United States, the states with the highest poverty rates are also those with the lowest share of high school graduates. The graph below plots the percent of the population living below the poverty level against the percent of the population above 25 years of age without complete high school education. The data is from the 2004 American Community Survey and all states are marked with their U.S. postal abbreviation.

Percent of population below poverty level and percent of population 25 years and over who did not graduate from high school, United States 2004

Data source: 2004 American Community Survey.

The regression line emphasizes the close link between poverty and lack of education in the United States. Mississippi has the poorest and least educated population, with 22 percent living below the poverty level and 23 percent not having graduated from high school. Other states with a low share of high school graduates and high poverty rates are Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas, and West Virginia. In contrast, Alaska, Connecticut, Minnesota, and New Hampshire have the least poor and most educated population in the United States. In the country as a whole, 13 percent of the population live below the poverty level and 16 percent did not graduate from high school.

Related articles

• Poverty and educational attainment in the United States
• Achievement gap between black and white students in the United States
• National wealth and school enrollment
• Household wealth and years of education
• Educational attainment in sub-Saharan Africa

Friedrich Huebler, 12 September 2005 (edited 9 May 2009), Creative Commons License
Permanent URL: http://huebler.blogspot.com/2005/09/poverty-and-educational-attainment-in_12.html

Poverty and educational attainment in the United States

On August 29, 2005, hurricane Katrina, possibly the deadliest storm in U.S. history, caused extensive damage in the southeastern United States. The victims of Katrina tended to be black, poor and less educated and many did not have the means to leave the area before the storm arrived.

Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi, the states that were particularly hard hit, are among the poorest in the nation, according to data from the 2004 American Community Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau. In Mississippi, 21.6% of the population lived below the poverty line, more than in any other U.S. state. Louisiana was the second poorest state, with 19.4% of the population living below the poverty line. Alabama was the ninth poorest of the 50 states, with 16.1% below the poverty line. New Orleans, the city with the highest number of storm victims, had a poverty rate of 23.2%. In comparison, 13.1% of the entire U.S. population lived below the poverty line in 2004. In terms of education, the three states affected most by the hurricane also rank near the bottom of the 50 U.S. states, as the graph below shows.

Percent of population 25 years and over who graduated from high school, United States 2004

Data source: 2004 American Community Survey.

The 2004 American Community Survey found that 83.9% of the U.S. population aged 25 years and over graduated from high school, which means that they have at least 12 years of education. In the graph above, the states are ranked by the share of the population who completed high school. Mississippi had the lowest percentage of high school graduates, 77.3%. Alabama with 79.5% and Louisiana with 79.9% rank fifth and sixth in terms of the lowest share of high school graduates.

The victims of hurricane Katrina are mostly from the margins of U.S. society, poor, with little education and limited economic opportunities. Local, state and national government agencies have the responsibility to assist those in need but there has been widespread criticism of the government's slow response to the disaster. Many survivors have lost their homes and other belongings and are unable to provide for themselves. They will depend on help from the government and charitable organizations like the Red Cross for many months and years to come.

Related articles

• Poverty and educational attainment in the United States, part 2
• Achievement gap between black and white students in the United States
• National wealth and school enrollment
• Household wealth and years of education
• Educational attainment in sub-Saharan Africa

Friedrich Huebler, 4 September 2005 (edited 9 May 2009), Creative Commons License
Permanent URL: http://huebler.blogspot.com/2005/09/poverty-and-educational-attainment-in.html

Primary school attendance in India

Today I will begin a series of posts that take a closer look at gender disparity in school attendance. Goal 3 of the Millennium Development Goals calls for the promotion of gender equality and the empowerment of women. The targets listed under this goal include the elimination of gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and at all levels of education no later than 2015.

Education statistics published by UNESCO are mostly based on administrative records of enrollment. Data from household surveys are an alternative source of statistics on school attendance. Because household surveys collect data on various characteristics of children and the households they live in it is possible to analyze gender disparity in more detail than with national enrollment data on primary or secondary education.

With household survey data a child is counted as being in school if one of the following two conditions is met:

1. The child attended school during the week preceding the survey.
2. The child was in school anytime during the year preceding the survey. This condition is added to account for children who were not in school because they were ill, because they were on vacation, or for other reasons.

In India, one of the most recent surveys is a Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) that was conducted in 2000. Overall, 72.1% of all children of primary school age (6-10 years) were attending primary school according to the data from the India MICS (see also the graph in a previous post). The graph below presents the primary school NAR for boys and girls disaggregated by the area of residence and by household wealth.

Primary school net attendance rate, India 2000

Data source: India 2000 MICS.

In the country as a whole, more boys than girls go to primary school. The NAR of boys is 6.6% higher than the NAR of girls (see the table below). This gender disparity at the country level is clearly driven by the patterns of school attendance in rural areas and in poor households. In urban areas and among the richest 20% of the population, boys' and girls' attendance rates are virtually identical. Rural families and those from the poorest 20% of the population, on the other hand, are likely to send only boys to school when they cannot afford education for all their children. To reach the Millennium Development Goal of gender parity, policy makers have to focus their efforts on rural India and on households that suffer from poverty.

Primary school net attendance rate, India 2000

	Total NAR (%)	Male NAR (%)	Female NAR (%)	Difference male- female	GPI female/ male
Urban	76.8	77.3	76.2	1.1	0.99
Rural	70.7	74.7	66.5	8.2	0.89
Richest 20%	81.9	81.8	81.9	-0.1	1.00
Poorest 20%	64.0	67.7	60.2	7.5	0.89
Total	72.1	75.3	68.7	6.6	0.91

GPI: gender parity index. - Data source: India 2000 MICS.

Friedrich Huebler, 29 August 2005 (edited 27 January 2007), Creative Commons License.

Education data from household surveys

Education statistics published by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics rely on two sources of data: (a) administrative records of enrollment that are provided by national governments and (b) population statistics from the United Nations Population Division. For example, the primary school net enrollment rate is calculated as follows:

• Primary school NER = children of primary school age enrolled in primary school / total population of primary school age
  

The numerator uses national enrollment data and the denominator population data from the UN Population Division. This combination of data from two different sources can lead to errors in the calculation of indicators like the NER. Estimates by the UN Population Division may not match the actual population figures in a country. Local schools, whose records are aggregated at the national level, may misstate enrollment to obtain financing and governments may do the same to meet objectives like the Millennium Development Goals. A further limitation of education statistics based on administrative records is that they provide little information about the characteristics of students beyond age and sex. In spite of these concerns, the data published by UNESCO remains the most comprehensive collection of global education statistics.

Household surveys are an alternative source of data on education. Because survey data is collected at the household level, it is possible to capture a large amount of additional information on children and the households and communities they live in. In contrast to records of enrollment, household surveys also provide data on children out of school that can be analyzed to guide policies aimed at increasing school enrollment rates.

Estimates derived from surveys use a single source of data, which minimizes problems that arise from the combination of data from different sources. However, the estimates are affected by two other types of errors: sampling errors and nonsampling errors. Sampling errors arise because surveys cover only a part of the population and estimates are therefore not identical to those that would be obtained by surveying the entire population of a country. Nonsampling errors are the result of mistakes during data collection and data processing, for example incorrect responses by survey respondents and mistakes during data entry. Sampling errors can be minimized by selecting a sufficiently large sample and nonsampling errors can be minimized through training of survey staff.

Two household survey programs that focus on developing countries are the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). The DHS were initiated by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in the 1980s to provide data on population and health trends. The MICS program was developed by UNICEF in the 1990s to monitor the situation of women and children.

Both the DHS and the MICS collect data on school attendance. As an example I show estimates for the primary school net attendance rate (NAR) from the 2000 MICS in India. The primary school NAR is calculated as follows:

• Primary school NAR = number of children of primary school age that are attending primary school / number of children of primary school age
  

Similar to the NER, the maximum value of the NAR is 100%. In the India MICS, 72.1% of all children of primary school age (6-10 years) were found to be in primary school. Attendance rates were higher among boys than girls (75.3% vs. 68.7%). NER data from UNESCO limits the analysis to a breakdown by sex but with survey data we can also analyze other disparities. In India, for example, urban children (NAR 76.8%) are more likely to attend primary school than rural children (NAR 70.7%). Household wealth is also an important determinant of school attendance. Among the poorest 20% of all households, only 64.0% of children attend primary school, compared to 81.9% of children from the richest 20% of all households.

Primary school net attendance rate, India 2000

Data source: India 2000 MICS.

In the coming weeks I will present more education data from household surveys. By providing detailed information on the determinants of school attendance at the household level, surveys are an important tool for policy makers and for researchers and organizations that work in the area of education.

Related articles

• Education disparity in South Asia

Friedrich Huebler, 22 August 2005 (edited 12 October 2008), Creative Commons License
Permanent URL: http://huebler.blogspot.com/2005/08/education-data-from-household-surveys.html.

Pre-primary education

Pre-primary or preschool education is targeted at children below the official primary school starting age. The content of national programs of pre-primary education varies, but the common goal is to introduce children to a school-type environment. Such programs set the foundation for lifelong learning and help countries reach the Millennium Development Goal of universal primary education.

The Global Education Digest 2005 from UNESCO has statistics on participation in pre-primary education for the school year 2002/03. The net enrollment ratio (NER) is listed for 149 countries, the gross enrollment ratio (GER) for 180 countries. The NER is the share of children of preschool age who are enrolled in preschool. The GER is the number of children in preschool, regardless of age, divided by the population of preschool age.

• NER = number of children of preschool age in preschool / number of children of preschool age
• GER = number of children in preschool / number of children of preschool age

The maximum value for the NER is 100% while the GER can exceed 100%. In a previous post I demonstrated that the difference between NER and GER at the primary level can be quite large. This is often the case in Sub-Saharan Africa because of delayed entry into primary school. At the pre-primary level, the difference between NER and GER is much smaller, as a comparison of the two maps below shows.

For most countries the pre-primary NER and GER lie in the same range although there are notable exceptions, among them Australia, South Korea, and the Ukraine. For this reason, and because the GER is available for more countries, I focus on the GER to describe participation at the pre-primary level of education.

Pre-primary net enrollment ratio, 2002/2003

Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS). 2005. Global Education Digest 2005. Montreal: UIS.

Pre-primary gross enrollment ratio, 2002/2003

Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS). 2005. Global Education Digest 2005. Montreal: UIS.

The lower graph presents the pre-primary GER in the school year 2002/03. The GER is above 80% in most industrialized countries, but also in some countries of East Asia (for example Malaysia and Thailand), Latin America (for example Cuba and Mexico), and Eastern Europe (Belarus and Russia). The pre-primary GER is lowest in Africa and the Middle East, with most countries in the range below 20%. Low GER values are also observed in Central, South, and East Asia. In Sub-Saharan Africa this pattern of low participation continues at the primary level, while in East Asia primary school enrollment rates are significantly higher.

Friedrich Huebler, 25 July 2005, Creative Commons License.

Transition from primary to secondary education

Statistics on primary and secondary school enrollment from the Global Education Digest 2005 by UNESCO indicate that few children in Africa continue their education past the primary level. The percentage of children enrolled in the last grade of primary school who continue their education at the secondary level is known as the transition rate from primary to secondary education.

The following graph shows the transition rate from primary to secondary education for 147 countries for which the Global Education Digest 2005 has data. The blue circles indicate the transition rate in each country. The red marks indicate the average transition rate in each region and the 95% confidence interval for this average.

Transition rate from primary to secondary education, 2002/03

Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS). 2005. Global Education Digest 2005. Montreal: UIS.
Note: Regional averages are weighted by each country's population of primary school age.

Worldwide, 85% of children in the last grade of primary school go on to attend secondary school (see the table below). Only two regions have transition rates below this global average: Eastern and Southern Africa (67.1%), and West and Central Africa (52.4%). Transition rates are highest in the industrialized countries (98.2%) and in Eastern Europe and the CIS countries (96.1%). However, even in Sub-Saharan Africa some countries have transition rates above 80%.

Transition rate from primary to secondary education, 2002/03

Region	Transition rate (%)
	Male	Female	Total
East Asia, Pacific	89.8	89.7	89.7
Eastern and Southern Africa	67.4	66.6	67.1
Eastern Europe, CIS	98.8	98.7	96.1
Industrialized countries	98.1	98.1	98.2
Latin America, Caribbean	92.0	91.3	91.0
Middle East, North Africa	86.4	86.1	86.3
South Asia	84.5	89.5	86.8
West and Central Africa	54.6	49.4	52.4
World	84.4	85.4	85.1

Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS). 2005. Global Education Digest 2005. Montreal: UIS.
Note: Regional values are weighted by each country's population of primary school age.

The difference between male and female transition rates is negligible, except for two regions: South Asia, and West and Central Africa. In South Asia, girls are more likely to transfer to secondary school; the transition rate is 89.5% for girls and 84.5% for boys. In West and Central Africa, the opposite can be observed; here the transition rate is 54.6% for boys and 49.4% for girls. Girls in this region are thus doubly disadvantaged. Not only do they have very low primary school enrollment rates, they are also less likely to continue their education at the secondary level.

Friedrich Huebler, 17 July 2005, Creative Commons License